RBI Overheating India’s Economy: On Materialist Greed Fueling Ceaseless Consumerism

A phenomenon as massive as the global coronavirus pandemic, which ran from 2020 to 2022, is bound to have major economic ripple, or wave, effects in its wake. India’s record high 9.2% growth of GNP in the 2023-2024 fiscal year illustrates the robust thrust of pent-up demand met with increased supply. To the extent that consumption over savings is the norm in any economy, a couple years off can subtly recalibrate economic mentalities to a more prudent economic mindset wherein saving money is not so dwarfed by spending it. Moreover, putting the brakes on a consumerist routine and societal norm can theoretically lead to putting the underlying materialism in a relative rather than an absolute position and thus in perspective. Yet such a “resetting” must overcome the knee-jerk instinct of any habit to restart as if there had been no change. Coming back to college, for example, after a summer away, students tend to pick up their respective routines right away as if the recent summer were a distant memory. India’s astonishing rate of economic growth just after the pandemic demonstrates that the penchant for consumerism and economic growth as a maximizing rather than satisficing variable returned as if the steeds in Socrates’ Symposium—only those horses represent garden-variety eros sublimated to love of eternal moral verities, to which Augustine substituted “God.”

The full essay is at "RBI Overheating India's Economy."

Adding Anti-Trust to Monetary Policy: The Case of Groceries

Monetary inflation is a complex phenomenon. Not only can its causes be several; it can make it more difficult to distinguish immediate and medium-term economic conditions from more long term, or structural changes impacting our species economically.  Of the former, the relationship between inflation and whether the markets are competitive or oligarchic (or even monopolies) can be better understood, and this in term can put us in a better position to assess the impact of longer-term changes, such as those stemming from the huge increase in the population of human beings since before the industrial age. The price of food (i.e., groceries) is a case in point. Specifically, the impact from presumably temporary shocks during the Covid pandemic should be distinguished from the impact of oligopolistic markets in keeping prices high, and of the increase in human mouths more generally (and longer term) representing increased demand for foodstuff in on a relatively fixed planet.

The full essay is at "Anti-Trust and Monetary Policy."

Time Magazine’s Person of the Year: Taylor Swift

Time magazine named the singer Taylor Swift as its person of the year for 2023. Such a force of nature were her stadium-filled concerts during that summer that they triggered economic booms in the respective host cities. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for example, hotel rooms went for as much as $2,500 downtown on the night of the concert. In terms of American culture, the analogy of gravity waves may fit. During an interview for television at her home (or one of her homes), Swift’s savvy business acumen was very evident; her marketing prowess was extraordinary. She even re-released her own songs, resulting in a huge financial windfall for what are really the same songs merely re-sung. It is not as if she had grown a new voice. Swift personifies American culture, whose “movers and shakers” seem “happy go lucky” on stage yet, behind the scenes, they tend to be lazar-focused on the business end. In short, considerable distance may exist between the societal image and the private business practitioner, and the ethical element can get lost in the shuffle and excitement. 

The full essay is at "Taylor Swift." 

Increasing Income Inequality in the U.S.: Deregulation to Blame?

Most Americans have no idea how unequal wealth as well as income is in the United States. This is the thesis of Les Leopold, who wrote How to Make a Million Dollars an Hour. In an essay, he points out that the inequality had increased through the twentieth century. His explanation hinges on financial deregulation. I submit that reducing the answer to deregulation does not go far enough.

The full essay is at "Increasing Income Inequality."

Les Leopold, “Inequality Is Much Worse Than You Think,” The Huffington Post, February 7, 2013.

An Empire's Economic Scale Demands a Market System: The Case of China

A trend of increased-scale economies can be observed through history as city-states have given way to the increased military power of centralized Medieval kingdoms. Many of those expanded into Early Modern kingdoms as advances in military technology make it possible for kings to extend the territory under their control. Even empires have gotten bigger. Modern-day Germany was once considered an empire, as were Switzerland and the Netherlands. Today these polities are states in a modern form of empire, the EU. Similarly, the emergent United Colonies of America was considered to be an empire within the British Empire, with the individual colonies being viewed on both sides of the Atlantic as Early Modern kingdom-level polities on par with the states of the E.U. in the twentieth century. Similarly in China, as kingdoms were added, an old form of empire took shape. Because these enlargements came about gradually over centuries, it has been difficult for the human mind to recalibrate how the modern large empire-scale economies should be designed to take into effect the distinct challenges of the scale. We can see such an adjustment in the case of China as economic centralization came to be replaced by regulated markets, albeit with a sizeable involvement still of the government in the economy. 

The Emperor Kangxi of the Qing Dynasty. He ruled for 60 years, greatly expanding the size of the empire. (Source: Chinahighlights.com)

The full essay is at "The Case of China."

Food as a Human Right: A Basis in Rousseau

The natural right to food unconditionally in society is based, I submit, on the assumption that it is because a person without food is in society that he or she is without food. Were the person in an agrarian economy in which people live off the land, having enough food to eat would not be such a formidable problem. Rousseau makes this point in his Discourse on Inequality.[1]  Hence, Mandeville's finding of an equal distribution of food among city dwellers because farmers sold their surplus crops to buy frivolous vanities can be viewed as highly optimistic, and, along with that account, so too Adam Smith's claim that competitive markets satisfy the food needs of specialized factory-laborers by means of competitive markets. 

The full essay is at "Food as a Human Right: Rousseau."

---

1. Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality, Harvard Classics, Charles W. Eliot, ed., Vol. 34 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press,1910).

Income Inequality: Natural or Artificial?

In the United States, the disposable income of families in the middle of the income distribution shrank by 4 percent between 2000 and 2010, according to the OECD.[1] Over roughly the same period, the income of the top 1 percent increased by 11 percent. In 2012, the average CEO of one of the 350 largest U.S. companies made about $14.07 million, while the average pay for a non-supervisory worker was $51,200.[2] In other words, the average CEO made 273 times more than the average worker. In 1965, CEOs were paid just 20 times more; by 2000, the figure peaked at 383 times. The ratio fell in the wake of the dot-com bubble and then in the financial crisis and its recession, but in 2010 the ratio began to rebound. According to an OECD report, rising incomes of the top 1 percent in the E.U. accounted for the rising income inequality in Europe in 2012, though that level of inequality was “notably less” than the one in the U.S.”[3]  Nevertheless, in both cases the increasing economic gap between the very rich and everyone else was not limited to the E.U. and U.S.; a rather pronounced global phenomenon of increasing economic inequality was clearly in the works by 2013.

The full essay is at "Natural vs. Artificial Income Inequality."

---

1.Eduardo Porter, “Inequality in America: The Data is Sobering,” The New York Times, July 30, 2013.

2. Mark Gongloff, “CEOs Paid 273 Times More Than Workers in 2012: Study,” The Huffington Post, June 26, 2013.

3. Kaja B. Fredricksen, “Income Inequality in the European Union,” OECD, Economics Department Working Paper No. 952, 2012.

The 2012 U.S.Trade Deficit: An Analysis

Coming in at 2.7% of GDP, the U.S. trade deficit fell to $107.5 billion in the third quarter of 2012—down 9 percent from the second quarter’s $118.1 billion, which was 3% of the economy at the time. The current account includes merchandise, services, and investment flows. The surpluses in services and investment were out-done by the deficit in merchandise to produce the overall trade deficit. According to the New York Times, the “improvement in the current account in the third quarter reflected a decline in the deficit on goods and a small increase in the surplus on services, led by a gain in foreign earnings made by financial services, insurance and professional services provided by companies in the United States. The surplus on investment earnings narrowed to $50.8 billion, down from $52.1 billion in the second quarter.” Most of the decline in the deficit on goods reflected a decline in the foreign oil bill, according to Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics.

Analysis is at "2012 U.S. Trade Deficit" 

The Receding Chinese-American Economic Paradigm in 2011: Imbalances within Mutual Benefit

“For decades,” according to The Wall Street Journal, “plentiful Chinese labor kept down costs of a range of goods bought by Americans.” Then, roughly in 2010, the Chinese government began supporting higher wages to reduce labor unrest and boost domestic consumption while reducing reliance on exports. Partially as a result of this, the world saw higher prices for commodities in 2011; oil was another factor as protests in the Middle East increased political risk in the calculations of future supply (amid speculation). A shrinking workforce in China was also putting pressure on the labor cost. Even though relatively cheap labor was still in the interior of the country, higher transportation costs mitigated the cost advantage. The prevailing paradigm was showing cracks. To be sure, it certainly had them.

The full essay is at "Economic Imbalances between China and the United States."

Google’s Philanthropy: $1 Billion to Tech-Train America’s Unemployed

In October 2017, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, announced that the company would give $1 billion over the next five years to nonprofit organizations that help people “adjust to the changing nature of work.”[1] The digital skills philanthropic venture would essentially help otherwise unemployed Americans get jobs that require high-tech skills. This would also enable more people to use the internet, and thus the company’s products. So a reporter at USA Today can be said to gild the lily a bit in claiming that the initiative “is a tacit acknowledgement from one of the world’s most valuable companies that it bears some responsibility for rapid advances in technology that are radically reshaping industries and eliminating jobs in the U.S. and around the world.”[2] I submit that it is highly unlikely that such an acknowledgement ever took place at Google, given the more likely scenario wherein the company’s management saw an opportunity to enlarge (and hopefully enrich) its labor pool and customer base.

The full essay is at "Google's Philanthropy."

---

[1] Jessica Lynn, “Google to Give $1 Billion to Nonprofits and Help Americans Get Jobs in the New Economy,” The New York Times, October 12, 2017.

[2] Ibid.

Cheaper Driving on an Uninhabitable Planet

By the end of November 2014, the price of oil had declined about 40 percent since its peak back in the previous June.[1] Expanding American fracking, a steady supply of oil from OPEC, and a weak global economy are the major factors behind the trend. Saving $630 million on gas as compared with what they had been paying in June, American drivers found themselves with more disposable income.[2]  Besides uses such as Christmas presents, groceries, and clothing, more consumers were buying SUVs and Hummers in spite of their low gas mileages. William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pointed to the benefits, saying “falling energy prices are beneficial for our economy and should be a strong spur to consumer spending.”[3] With OPEC countries and Russia hit disproportionately, the U.S. Government had a geo-strategic interest in a further drop in the price of oil. It is no wonder that a major disconnect existed between these benefits and a startling, albeit largely hidden downside.

The full essay is at “Uninhabitable”

---

[1] Steven Mufson, “As Oil Prices Plunge, Wide-Ranging Effects for Consumers and the Global Economy,” The Washington Post,  December 1. 2014.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

Mammoth American Airlines Trades Passenger Privacy for Profit

“Personalizing the flying experience” Sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Let’s add to it, “and better target promotions.” This addendum has doubtlessly been lauded in the corporate hallways at American Airlines, yet that airline’s completed phrase likely smacks of a marketing ploy to the general public. Specifically, the first part hinges on the second, which in turn is a function of profit-seeking and ultimately greed. As per the general relationship between increasing risk and reward, the airline’s strategy is not without risk.

The full essay is in the book, Cases of Unethical Business: A Malignant Mentality of Mendacity.

U.S. Justice Department Opposes American-US Air Merger: Justice as Fairness?

After a decade of “rapid consolidation” in the U.S. airline industry, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit in mid-2013 to block the proposed merger between American Airlines and US Airlines. The question I investigate here is whether the government’s opposition to this merger is fair to the stockholders and employees (including managers) of the two airlines. Given the undoubted proliferation of empirical studies on the probable impacts of the merger on the industry (e.g., competition), the ethical question of justice as fairness may have slipped between the cracks.

At the time, the merger was expected to create the world’s largest airline, not to mention the largest American (or US) airline. Even though the government had blocked the merger of AT&T and T-Mobile two years earlier and forced Anheuser-Busch InBev to significantly change the terms of its takeover of the brewer of Corona earlier in 2013, the New York Times characterized the antitrust division of the U.S. Justice Department as having “a newly aggressive approach.”[1] The division had allowed a “nearly unfettered run of mergers in recent years.”2] Even the regulators were on board.
 

                                                  Should these two airlines merge?   Image Source: NYT

Beginning in 2008—the year of the financial crisis—the Justice department approved the mergers of Delta and Northwest, United and Continental, and Southwest and AirTran. “While those mergers helped the industry return to profitability and brought more stability, they also led to higher fares, regulators said. A union between American and US Airways would take the consolidation too far, . . . hurting consumers and leading to substantially less competition and higher airfares and fees, and to less service to many airports.”[3] Eric Holder, the U.S. Attorney General, said his department was determined to ensure “robust competition in the marketplace.”[4]

According to the Justice Department, the merger would result in four airlines controlling more than 80 percent of the U.S. market for commercial air travel. Whether there has been much real competition in what may actually be oligarchic markets in the U.S. is a question for another day. Here, the question is whether being the last in line, reaching the counter just after closing, is fair. Of course, the analogy breaks down in part because American and US Airways did not have to wait for the other mergers to have been approved. The question, better stated, is whether being the merger likely to reduce competition below a threshold is fair to the owners and employees of the two airlines, given the fact that the Justice Department had approved other mergers in the industry in the preceding five years.

That the “vast majority of domestic airline routes were already highly concentrated” suggests that maybe the Justice Department should not have gone on a sort of spending spree in allowing all of the preceding mergers.[5] Put another way, if the overwhelming number of existing routes were already highly consolidated, why all of a sudden was another merger too much due to its impact on competition? Is there much competition in a highly concentrated market? If not, then why didn’t the government draw the line earlier, opposing one or two of the earlier mergers? Robert Mann, a former airline executive, has characterized the Justice Department as “late to the game with concerns over airline industry consolidation.”[6] Given that American sought the merger to avoid bankruptcy, should the stockholders and employees of American as well as US Airways suffer from the government hitting the brakes because it had been speeding?

On the other hand, consequentially speaking, the proposed merger was expected to harm consumers, perhaps even more than the previous mergers had. The consequences of the last guy putting a card on top of a house of cards are very different than the preceding consequences—hence the last guy. In this sense, having a threshold of risk makes sense. The risk to competition had become too great, even if this was due to the preceding mergers. That the government should probably have raised the hurdles higher for those mergers does not mean that government should stand aside as consumers have to pay “hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars” more as a result of the proposed merger, according to William Baer, the assistant U.S. attorney general in charge of the anti-trust division.[7]

Who should pay—the consumers or the stockholders and employees of American and US Airways? Is there a third option that is not averse to the financial interests of any of these groups? If not, who should pay? If the airline industry was already heavily consolidated, presumably at the expense of competition, implementing Holder’s aim would entail going beyond disapproving the proposed merger to pro-actively break up all of the existing major airlines based in the United States. The airlines coming out of such an act would have different ownerships as well as managements and boards of directors. All of the mega-airlines would be treated the same in being broken into two or three airlines each.

---

1.  Jad Mouawad, “U.S., Filing Suit, Moves to Block Airline Merger,” The New York Times, August 13, 2013.

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.

7. Ibid.

Does Austerity Work?

Does raising taxes and cutting government spending reduce a government’s deficits and thus debt? Confine consideration to more tax revenue and less spent and the theoretical answer is yes; it being a simple matter of mathematics. Include the impacts of raising taxes and cutting spending and the answer become far less straightforward. More paid in tax means less disposable income, which means less consumption and thus less produced (i.e., GNP). A government spending less also means less consumption in the economy, and therefore even less to be produced to meet demand. In short, austerity is recessionary. Whether the ratios of deficit and debt to GDP increase depends on how much the numerators drop relative to the decrease in GDP. We can look at the E.U. for some empirical evidence.

 If austerity kills dignity, then pressure on governments to relax spending cuts can be expected.   source: rt.com

The full essay is at "Essays on the E.U. Political Economy," available at Amazon.

ECB’s Draghi Resists Pressure to Devalue Euro and Stimulate Growth

Despite pressures from the appreciation of the euro, which had hit a 15-month peak of $1.3711 on February 1, 2013, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank announced four days later that the benchmark financing rate would be on hold at the record-low 0.75 percent. In making the announcement, he stressed that the worst was over for the Eurozone and that the uncertainties would be gone by midyear. “The economic weakness in the euro area is expected to prevail in the early part of this year. But later in 2013, economic activity should gradually recover, supported by our accommodative monetary policy stance and the improvement in financial market confidence.” Draghi was tacitly undercutting Francois Hollande’s earlier statement that the euro should depreciate so as not to hurt economic competitiveness. A higher euro means more expensive euro-based exports abroad. The relationships between monetary policy, a currency, and economic growth are complex. It would thus be worthwhile to unpack the scenario facing Draghi and Hollande in early 2013.

                         Mario Draghi addressing the World Economic Forum. In resisting pressure to lower the benchmark rate, he increased his financial stature abroad. 

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. PoliticalEconomy, available at Amazon.

The E.U.: The Growth Union

In relying only on austerity and cheap bailout loans, the German-led strategy has proffered a false sense of European integration in the E.U. Even as expanding the bailout funds to roughly 800 billion euros and strengthening the E.U.’s means of enforcing limits on state deficits and debt are along the line of continued incremental shifts of governmental sovereignty from the state governments to that of the E.U., the related austerity (and recession) sparked a populist backlash in several states. At the state level (and this level has a major role at the E.U. level—unlike in the U.S.), the state-rights (i.e., anti-E.U.) parties have been the beneficiaries even if they could not gain outright majorities. The National Front in the state of France is an obvious example, as it captured 18% of the vote in the run up to the general election in 2012.  Other things equal, such a spike translates into brakes on further European integration in the medium term.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

On the Irrational Exuberance of a Market's Bubble: The Tech Industry

I contend that the degree of uncertainty related to the expectation of future profits in the social media companies means that that industry ought to be treated by investors as if it were in a bubble, even if it turns out that the expectations were spot on. That is to say, investors should buy in lightly, and supported by a diversified portfolio. So perhaps the question of whether the industry is in a bubble is not as vital as the media may suppose; the extent of uncertainty, which was clearly evident for instance in LinkedIn's trading at 540 times its prior year's profit, is itself a factor not to take lightly. So call it bubble or not, the difference between known and expected revenues is itself worthy of consideration, and when that difference is significant, the wise and prudent investor naturally treads lightly, even if it seems that others may make out like bandits.

The full essay is at "On the Irrational Exuberance."

Food Prices Rising: Will the Global Population Growth Outstrip Food Supply?

I contend that it is in our interest as a species to see that our population size is managed toward a steady state rather than as a maximizing variable (i.e., schizogenic). In fact, we have a right and obligation as one body to see that our various limbs are coordinated such that none engages in hypertrophy. That is to say, the whole has the right to protect its viability by arresting excessive growth in one of the parts. That much of the world's population growth takes place in the developing world does not mean that this right, or obligation, of the world is somehow a plot by the developed countries to oppress the poorer countries. In fact, much of the pain of the higher food prices is in the developing world rather than in the industrialized countries, so it is in the interest of the developing countries to accede to the world’s demand that their population growth be stopped.

The full essay is at "Food Prices and Global Population Growth."

Efficiency, Corporate Social Responsibility and Full Employment: Squaring a Circle

The New York Times reported that President Obama urged American businesses on February 7, 2011 to “'get in the game' by letting loose trillions of dollars being held in reserves, saying that they can help create a 'virtuous cycle' of more sales, higher demand and greater profits that will put people back to work and turn around the sluggish economy.” Obama continued, “If there is a reason you don’t believe that this is the time to get off the sidelines — to hire and invest — I want to know about it. I want to fix it.” In the speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Obama said that companies have a responsibility to help the economy recover. The trouble is that responsibility is a rather vague term that can be variously applied. This is one reason why the corporate social responsibility concept could mean providing society with the products and services that are sought via the marketplace (e.g. Milton Friedman of the Chicago school) while meaning for others increasing corporate philanthropy to alleviate a society problem such as poverty. In other words, responsibility can be made concrete in various ways that can accommodate and indeed reflect the ideologies of those applying the term.

The full essay is at "Efficiency and CSR."