On the E.U.’s Complex Federal System

Because the “the EU is built on consensus at 27” states,[1] by 2026 it had become painfully obvious to Europe’s elite that its Union had come to harbor a great disadvantage in terms of united or collective action because political consensus can be elusive even at 27 states, each of which could result to a veto on reforms at the federal level, with enlargement of the Union from 27 on the horizon. Something had to be done, given the intransigence of the principle of unanimity in the European Council and the Council of Ministers. Direct access of the state governments at the federal level could stave off too much federal encroachment on the prerogatives of the state governments, but the costs associated with this safeguard were becoming too high. Therefore, in February, 2026, E.U. state and federal officials met to give added weight to something called “two-track Europe.” In actuality, there were already more than two tracks in the European Union. Although complex, the means of releasing the Union from the high bar needed to achieve unanimity or even consensus among the several states could well save the Union from the paralysis of division. The outdated premise that united action should only be allowed when there is no division had become too utopian for federal Europe. Multiple-speed Europe in the E.U. is actually more in line with the E.U.’s federal system already being genuine.

The full essay is at "On the E.U.'s Complex Federal System."

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1. Jorge Liboreiro, “Leaders Embrace Two-Speed Europe to Break Impasse as Macron Sets June Deadline for Economic Reset,” Euronews.com, February 12, 2026.

Bulgaria: From the Lion to the Euro

Just weeks after the government of the E.U. state of Bulgaria resigned amid protests against the rampant corruption, the state traded in its currency, the levs, which means lion, for the federal currency, the euro. In the new year, 2026, Bulgaria stood to relieve holders of the state’s debt and to tame the endemic inflation that has plagued the state’s economy. In November, 2025, for example, food prices had risen by 5% year-on-year, “more than double the eurozone average.”[1] The term “eurozone” is actually problematic, as it, like the application of the jargon, “bloc,” to the E.U. itself is meant to obfuscate readers regarding the genre of the political, federal union. To claim that Bulgaria joined a currency zone is inferior stating that the state adopted the federal currency. Stated properly, the currencies in the E.U. can be compared with those that were in the early U.S., and all of those combinations of state and federal currencies can be held to be compatible with federalism.

The full essay is at "Bulgaria." 

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1. Aleksandar Brezar, “Bulgaria Switches to the Euro Amid Mixed Reactions from Its Citizens,” Euronews.com, 1 January, 2026.

A Trader Dreamed of Economic Collapse

Call it over-confident bravado or perhaps a lapse into utter transparency; trader Alessio Rastani’s comments on BBC give the rest of us a glimpse of the power behind the world’s thrones and how prone “the system” is to collapsing without a sufficient force geared to the viability of the system itself. In other words, it is amazing that the financial/governmental systems go on without more attention to them as systems rather than to micro self-interests. One might ask whether powerful self-interests are sufficient to keep the system from hitting the rocks. Apparently the answer is yes, though this is astonishing nonetheless. It is like a car somehow making its way down the street with one person in the car looking at pedal, another at the steering wheel, and still another at the speedometer. It is amazing if the car does not crash, yet somehow it managing to stay on the road.

The full essay is at "Economic Collapse."

On the Danger to the United States of Living off Government Debt: The Case of the Dollar as World Reserve in 2010

Given the $13 trillion of U.S. Government debt in 2010, the dollar was losing out at the time in percentage terms to other currencies as the global reserve currency. To be sure, in absolute terms, there were still more dollars being held abroad than twenty or thirty years earlier, but as a report from Emma Lawson of Morgan Stanley showed, other currencies were taking on more of a relative presence. The lesson concerning excessive public debt was not grasped at least through the 2010's, as the debt continued to increase trillions of dollars more.

The full essay is at "Excessive U.S. Debt: Impact on the Dollar."

The Strength of the Euro Bespeaks Normalcy for the E.U.

As 2018 was beginning its climb in the northern hemisphere toward eventually warmer days, the prospect for the E.U. through and after the secession of one of its largest states was perhaps brighter than commonly thought at the time. When the days are short, it is perhaps all too easy to be pessimistic. Signs of strength in the euro implicitly sent the message in January, 2018 that the E.U. would be just fine without its foremost euro-skeptic state.

The full essay is at "The Euro and Secession."

Essays on the E.U. Political Economy: Federalism and the Debt Crisis

The collection of essays comprising The E.U. Political Economy looks broadly at the E.U.'s federal system, with particular attention to the states, including the matter of "Brexit," which refers to the secession of Britain from the Union. The text then turns more narrowly to the government-debt and banking crisis that occurred in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. The backdrop of federalism is meant to convey the point that weaknesses in that political system hampered the E.U.'s handing of its states and banks that were in trouble with debt. Lastly, several essays are presented on some more general aspects of the E.U.'s political economy. Rather than being heavily theory-oriented, the essays draw on contemporaneous news reports to quote from practitioners from business and government.

Essays on the E.U. Political Economy is available in print or as an ebook at Amazon.

The E.U.’s Central Bank: Beholden to State-Level Politics

Faced with the rise of anti-euro candidates for state offices throughout the E.U., Mario Draghi, the president of the E.U.’s central bank deemed it politically prudent to depart from the light world of cool economic data to mount a spirited defense of the euro and even free trade in March, 2017. With the UK having voted to secede from the Union, he could not assume that the state of the Union would continue to be inherently viable. Indeed, some political candidates at the state level were “questioning the whole idea of a united Europe and the European Central Bank’s fundamental reason for being.”[1] 

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires.

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[1] Jack Ewing, “As E.C.B. Charts Economic Course, Politics Complicate the Picture,” The New York Times, March 9, 2017.

Analysis of Italy’s 2016 Referendum: Beyond the Euro and the E.U.

The predominate axis of analysis in the wake of the Italian referendum in early December, 2016 centered on the euro, the federal currency of the European Union. For example, an article in The Wall Street Journal begins with the following: “Sunday’s referendum vote in Italy reinforced a widening split between the economics needed to sustain Europe’s common currency and the continent’s rising tide of populism.”

The full essay is at "Essays on the E.U. Political Economy," available at Amazon.

Hollande Proposes Economic Government for Euro-Zone: Muddying the Water?

At a press conference marking French President Francois Hollande’s first year in office, the powerful head of the large E.U. state called for an economic government for the euro zone.  One might be tempted to ask, what exactly is an economic government? By definition, a government is a political entity. Show me a government without politics and I’ll pack up and head to the Himalayas for a life of other-worldly contemplation. What, pray tell, is an economic government exactly?

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires.

           President Francois Hollande of France proposing an economic government for the euro-zone. What exactement is an economic government?    Source: Reuters

ECB’s Draghi Resists Pressure to Devalue Euro and Stimulate Growth

Despite pressures from the appreciation of the euro, which had hit a 15-month peak of $1.3711 on February 1, 2013, Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank announced four days later that the benchmark financing rate would be on hold at the record-low 0.75 percent. In making the announcement, he stressed that the worst was over for the Eurozone and that the uncertainties would be gone by midyear. “The economic weakness in the euro area is expected to prevail in the early part of this year. But later in 2013, economic activity should gradually recover, supported by our accommodative monetary policy stance and the improvement in financial market confidence.” Draghi was tacitly undercutting Francois Hollande’s earlier statement that the euro should depreciate so as not to hurt economic competitiveness. A higher euro means more expensive euro-based exports abroad. The relationships between monetary policy, a currency, and economic growth are complex. It would thus be worthwhile to unpack the scenario facing Draghi and Hollande in early 2013.

                         Mario Draghi addressing the World Economic Forum. In resisting pressure to lower the benchmark rate, he increased his financial stature abroad. 

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. PoliticalEconomy, available at Amazon.

Is a Stronger Euro in Europe’s Interest? In America’s?

Speaking at the European Parliament in early February 2013, Francois Hollande of France castigated the floating exchange rate of the euro. “The euro should not fluctuate according to the mood of the markets. A monetary zone must have an exchange rate policy. If not it will be subjected to an exchange rate that does not reflect the real state of the economy.”  The week before, the euro was at $1.37, a 15-month high. The euro was at its strongest rate against the Japanese yen since April 2010. Behind the rise in the currency’s value was a surge in investor interest in the euro from assessments that the worst of the debt crisis had passed. Hollande’s statement can be critiqued on a number of points.

Was the upswing in the value of the euro just the beginning of the currency's rise as a reserve currency around the world?

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available at Amazon.

States Pull Ahead of E.U. on Syria: A Compromised Foreign Policy?

In November 2012, the New York Times reported that the European Union was offering “crucial support for the new Syrian political opposition,” which the E.U. referred to as the “legitimate representative for the Syrian people.” The E.U. stopped short of “conferring full diplomatic recognition” to the new group—the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces—even though one of the E.U.’s states, France, had conferred such recognition one week earlier, and another state, Britain, would soon do likewise.

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available at Amazon.

Romania’s Monetary Policy in Federal Europe

Sometimes monetary policy and federalism can interact in interesting ways. To grasp a particular relation, such as that of Romania in the European Union, it is first necessary to keep in mind that monetary policy is not federalism and vice versa. An anti-federalist, for example, might have an incentive to conflate the two concepts out of a desire to deny the existence of a federal system already underway.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires, available at Amazon.

      Romanian currency.     Source: banknotes.com

Predicting Future Events in Political Risk Analysis: On the European Debt Crisis

Political risk assessment is a nasty business in that the future has a stubborn habit of not wanting to be too predictable. Even though tomorrow displays a remarkable tendency to be similar to the world of today—the status quo enjoying the right of default—forecasting future events is notoriously difficult. To use statistics to nail down probabilities may actually involve considerable luck. Not even the stature of the person making the predictions may be decisive, after all. I have in mind the predictions of Alexei Kudrin, the former Russian finance minister, on the European debt crisis and the euro.

                                                             

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available at Amazon.

Euroskeptic Spoilers in the Council: Two-Tracks as a Solution

During its meeting in October 2012, the European Council decided to move forward on the legal underpinnings of a banking supervisor at the ECB. The position was officially accepted at the next meeting in December. The position was designed to be responsible for overseeing the banks in the states that use the euro. Some of the debate between state leaders at the October meeting involved when the supervisor would be up and running. The issue of timing was particularly relevant and indeed pressing at the time because federal bailout money would flow directly to banks only once a supervisor is in place. To the extent that Spanish banks desperately needed additional capitalization to cover their bad debts, the ability of the Council to come up with legislation for a supervisor position in a timely manner—the upcoming German election notwithstanding—was crucial to stabilizing the market not only in the E.U., but internationally as well. The Council's members can be subjected to critique in this respect.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires, available at Amazon.

Bulgaria Shrugs Off the Euro

In early September 2012, Reuters reported that Bulgaria had “abandoned plans to adopt the single currency in response to deteriorating economic conditions and rising uncertainty over the prospects of the European Union. Finance Minister Simeon Djankov was quoted as saying as much.  Bulgaria was at the time the poorest state in the E.U. (similar perhaps to Mississippi in the U.S.). It is significant that Bulgaria was one of the least indebted states and was “trying to stick to tight fiscal discipline to avoid risks to the lev currency, which [was at the time] pegged to the euro.” In this regard, Bulgaria was like Finland and Germany in that it faced the prospect of paying for other states’ profligacy and lack of self-discipline. From this vantage point, it makes perfect sense for Bulgaria to demur. However, the perspective may be short-sighted in another respect. Specifically, Bulgaria risked missing the boat on the E.U.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy," available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

Greek Austerity Win at E.U.’s Loss?

According to one director of a public-debt consulting firm in the E.U., “In the realm of investor perceptions, Spain has crossed the Rubicon from solvency to insolvency.” A day after Europeans in the state of Greece had given a narrow victory to parties in favor of maintaining the austerity program there, investors’ concern regarding the viability of the euro pushed the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds as high as 7.2 percent—a level that Spain’s economy minister, Luis de Guindos, claimed is unsustainable in the long term.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available at Amazon.

European Central Bank to E.U. Leaders: Vision Is Needed

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, warned a committee of the E.U.'s parliament at the end of May 2012 that the structure undergirding the euro in the E.U. had become "unsustainable." He criticized political officials for having kicked the can down the road by enacting half-measures or else delaying decisions, thus making the debt crisis even worse than it otherwise would have been. "The next step is for our leaders to clarify what is the vision for a certain number of years from now."[1] Similarly, Olli Rehm, vice president of the E.U. Commission (the E.U.'s executive branch), said that ways must be found to avoid a disintegration of the common currency.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Jack Ewing, "A Terse Warming for Euro States: Do Something New," The New York Times, May 31, 2012.

Eurobonds for Stimulus Spending

Meeting on May 23, 2012, the E.U.’s European Council failed to come up with a plan to offset the recessionary aspect of Greece’s budget cuts. The pressure was on; the OECD had just warned that the E.U. go back into recession. Interest rates on state debt-namely that of Spain—had reached an unsustainable level the week before due to concern regarding banks based in the state. Besides the debt and banking vulnerabilities at the state level, the E.U. itself was struggling with its political weakness, which can be attributed to the states’ rights (or euro-skeptic) ideology that was not exactly going away in the context of the debt-contagion that had prompted the establishment of a permanent E.U. bailout fund for states in over their heads on debt. In this context, the European Council was at the intersection of debt, banking and political problems.

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

Tsipras against Austerity: Merkel Bends on Stimulus

Under pressure to join a unity government in Greece with the New Democracy and Socialist parties, Tsipras of a “radical left” Syriza party was holding firm as of May 13, 2012. Even as the resulting prospect of new elections and a possible reneging on the agreement by Greece, there is something to admire in Tsipras’ position.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.