Contagion Beyond the Headlines in the E.U.

The E.U. states of Greece and Italy were grabbing headlines during the first two weeks of November 2011, given the dramatic resignations of Papandreou and Berlusconi. The only other state to get some attention was France. The Wall Street Journal noted on November 12^th that concerns had been quietly building about France. According to the paper,“French bond yields rose to four-month highs, one day after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services erroneously issued a message saying it had cut France's triple-A credit rating. The yield on France's benchmark 10-year bond climbed 0.02 percentage point to 3.46%. That was 1.66 percentage points over yields on comparable German government bonds. France now has the highest government bond yields among its triple-A-rated peers in the region.” However, it seems overly dramatic to say that a .02 percent increase evinces a climb. Moreover, 3.46% is well under 7 percent, which is the level that was presumed at the time to signify the need for a bailout. Relative to the changes in the Italian yield, those of the French bonds could be viewed as relatively moderate, The French yield was still closer to that of Germany. Although not a red herring, the concern over France masked some real sleepers that were poised to take a hit in 2012. 

The full essay is at "Debt Contagion in the E.U."

For more on this topic, see Essays on the E.U. Political Economy

Spain’s Deficit: Violating E.U. Law

In early March, 2012, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced that Spain’s budget-deficit target would not be the 4.4% that had been promised by his predecessor to the E.U. Commission in 2011. Instead, the anticipated deficit in 2012 would be 5.8 percent.[1] That announcement put the state of Spain on a collision course with the enhanced enforcement of deficit limits by the Commission and the ECJ. Even though Rajoy had signed onto the added-enforcement “pact” a month before, he said of the 5.8 percent, “This is a sovereign decision made by Spain.”[2] A few days after his announcement E.U. finance officials met and accepted a 5.3% target.[3] Although it comes with a “tough deficit target” for 2013, one wonders whether the proposed strengthening of the “fiscal pact” will ever be enforced—and in a way that is fair to all of the states.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires.

1. Stephen Fidler, “Spain’s Move Tests Europe’s Mettle on Deficits,” The Wall Street Journal, March 10-11, 2012.

2. Ibid.

3. Matthew Dalton, “Euro-Zone Ministers Press Spain for a Deal on Deficits,” The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2012.