Eurobonds for Stimulus Spending

Meeting on May 23, 2012, the E.U.’s European Council failed to come up with a plan to offset the recessionary aspect of Greece’s budget cuts. The pressure was on; the OECD had just warned that the E.U. go back into recession. Interest rates on state debt-namely that of Spain—had reached an unsustainable level the week before due to concern regarding banks based in the state. Besides the debt and banking vulnerabilities at the state level, the E.U. itself was struggling with its political weakness, which can be attributed to the states’ rights (or euro-skeptic) ideology that was not exactly going away in the context of the debt-contagion that had prompted the establishment of a permanent E.U. bailout fund for states in over their heads on debt. In this context, the European Council was at the intersection of debt, banking and political problems.

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

Facebook’s IPO: Morgan Stanley’s Conflict of Interest

Morgan Stanley’s underwriting of Facebook’s IPO has been thought by some of the bank’s rivals to be incompetently managed.  According to the New York Times, “(r)ival bankers and big investors have complained that Morgan Stanley botched the I.P.O., setting the price too high and selling too many shares to the public.”[1] Interestingly, the incompetence is positively correlated with unethical policy decisions at the bank. Even as the bankers as underwriters were eager to sell lots of shares, they may have given some of their institutional customers—albeit only the most preferred, as per the bank’s other services—some privileged information. If this charge is true, the conflict of interest at the bank should be closely examined by Congress and any relevant regulators.

The full essay is at Institutional Conflicts of Interest, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Evelyn Rusli and Michael De La Merced, “Facebook I.P.O. Raises Regulatory Concerns,” The New York Times, May 22, 2012.

Wealth and Happiness American-Style

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released an up-dated version of its Better Life Index in May 2012. The U.S. ranked first in income, with average household wealth at $102,000, as well as in housing (Americans spending about 20% of their disposable income on it—the OECD average being 22%).[1] These figures for the U.S. could have been pushed upward by the fact that at the time, the very rich were richer than their counterparts in other countries, for the gap between rich and poor was relatively high in the U.S. For example, 30 million Americans were without health insurance and a record number of Americans were receiving a governmental subsidy for food. Rather than assume that the middle and lower economic segments in the U.S. were better off than their counterparts in other regions of the world, I suspect that the statistics reflect the higher relative pay of American executives and professionals (lawyers, physicians and CPAs). The typical CEO in the E.U., for example, made less than his or her counterpart in the U.S.  This caused trouble in the Chrysler-Daimler merger because the Chrysler executives enjoyed higher compensation even though Daimler was in charge.

The full essay is at "Wealth and Happiness."

1. “OECD LaunchesUpdated Version of Your Better Life Index,” OECD. 

The Huffington Post Gilds the Lily: Facebook’s IPO Plummets?

On the day of its IPO, Facebook issued at $38 and went to a high of $45 before returning to near its issue price (closing at $38.23). On the next trading day, the price fell to about $34 in the early afternoon. This represents about 10% off the issue price. The Huffington Post headlined “Stock Plummets,” which must have been irresistible to anyone who had bought the stock. The Huff was using the $45 high as its benchmark, from which the $34 price represents a 25% drop. As if that were a plummeting, using the 10% off figure would have made the self-aggrandizing headline too obvious. At the very least, the headline detracts from the credibility of the Huffington Post.

The full essay is at "Taking the Face Off Facebook."

"Real Change" Belied: Lobbyists in Obama's White House

Visitor logs for January 17, 2012 show that the lobbying industry that Obama had vowed to constrain was nonetheless a regular presence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.[1] That's the address of the White House. Even though the president barred recent lobbyists from joining his administration or even serving on its advisory boards and forbid federal employees from accepting free admission to receptions and conferences sponsored by lobbying groups, records suggest that lobbyists with personal connections to the White House enjoyed the easiest access. The principle of fairness (not to mention consistency) seems to have been sacrificed for political (and campaign finance) expediency.

The full essay is at "'Real Change' Belied."

1. T. W. Farnam, “White House Visitor Logs Provide Window into Lobbying Industry, The Washington Post, May 21, 2012.

Unions and States at a G-8 Meeting

At the G-8 summit at Camp David in May 2012, E.U. and U.S. leaders met with the leaders of four E.U. states (Italy, Germany, France and Britain). As this picture illustrates, the qualitative differences between looking after a union of states and a state can show up unintentionally in informal seating arrangements. In the context of the European debt crisis—in particular, whether to give one state (i.e., Greece) stimulus cash or just insist on the austerity programs already agreed to—the governors of the E.U. states have particular agendas (given the financial interests of the respective states) whereas the federal officials are oriented to the good of the whole (i.e., the E.U.). President Obama of the U.S. was by the time of the summit used to taking such a perspective over and above the interests of particular U.S. states. Such a commonality of federal, empire-level interests as distinct from the relatively particularized interests of E.U. (and U.S.) states could be reflected in the seating arrangement in the picture taken by the White House, wherein Obama, Barroso (sitting next to Obama), and Van Rompuy (in the sweater) seem to be facing the four governors. The seating arrangement could just as easily have been a circle. It probably was, originally, and I suspect that the federal v. states distinction operated unconsciously on the participants such that the three federal officials came to be as though a line facing the four governors of E.U. states.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires, available at Amazon.

The United States as Religious and Secular Societies

E pluribus unum, or “Out of many, one,” is a motto for the United States—the American States that are united. The many can refer, I suppose, to the sheer number of inhabitants stretching across a continent and beyond. The word could also refer to the diversity of people living even in a large American city. Finally, the word could refer to the Union consists of many different socio-political societies, or republics—again possibly referring to the number of states or the fact that they differ so from one another.  It is the last interpretation that I want to explore here, for it alone gets at the fact that the U.S., like the E.U. and China, are at the empire-level (or scale) in twentieth-century (rather than medieval) terms (i.e., scaling).

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires, available at Amazon. 

A Conflict-of-Interest in Lobbying: The Case of JPMorgan

At the JP Morgan stockholder meeting on May 15, 2012, as the FBI was opening an investigation into the bank’s $2 (or $3 )billion loss on credit derivatives, Chair/CEO Jamie Dimon gave what the Huffington Post calls “a spirited defense of the bank’s efforts to lobby against stiffer financial regulation.” He argued that the bank’s interest is the same as the stockholders—namely, to make the financial system strong and sound. What he omitted was the part about the bank’s interest including its own profit, even if systemic risk of the system is increased as a result. In general, any business looks primary after its own interests, and only then to the general interests of the system.

The full essay is at "JPMorgan: An Unethical Monstrosity," available at Amazon. 

California Fiscal Policy: The Crowding-Out Effect

In the U.S. Constitutional Convention of 1787, some delegates expressed the concern that giving the General (federal) Government the authority to tax income would eventually result in a “crowding out” of the ability of state governments to raise revenue. Over two hundred years later, in 2012, California had cut its budget by 20 percent over the previous three years and was still faced with a $16 billion deficit.[1] Unlike Greece, California cannot avail itself of bailout funds from the federal level. Additionally, the Federal Reserve, like the European Central Bank, is barred by statute from bailing out a state government. Even as the U.S. Government places certain requirements on California’s budget that make it more difficult for the Government of California to make cuts, it could not avail itself of the bailout (TARP) that had benefitted Wall Street banks and the Michigan auto industry.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires, available at Amazon.

1. “California Governor Calls for Higher Taxes, 4-day State Workweek to Fill $16 Billion Gap,” NBC News, May 14, 2012. 

Tsipras against Austerity: Merkel Bends on Stimulus

Under pressure to join a unity government in Greece with the New Democracy and Socialist parties, Tsipras of a “radical left” Syriza party was holding firm as of May 13, 2012. Even as the resulting prospect of new elections and a possible reneging on the agreement by Greece, there is something to admire in Tsipras’ position.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

A Rigid Refusal to Renegotiate: Blaming the Greeks

As Greek party leaders struggled to put together a government in May 2012 after a splintering election, a major (and contentious) issue was whether to demand a renegotiation of the bailout agreement. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left known as Syriza (which made large gains in the election), was declaring the agreement null and void given the mandate implied by the gains made on the far right and left (both being opposed to the austerity program). Tsipras believed he “had changed the debate to the point that the formerly dominant parties that had signed the loan agreement were . . .  indicating they might agree to demand it be renegotiated.”[1] His statements were enough to prompt a firm Nein! from Angela Merkel in Berlin and a related “tightening of the screws” from the committee of the European Financial Stability Facility.

The full essay is at Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Rachel Donadio and Niki Kitsantonis, “ContinuingLeadership Deadlock in Greece as Its Lenders Watch and Wait,” The New York Times, May 9, 2012.

Anti-Austerity in Greek Government

The Socialists and then the New Democracy Party told Greeks that sacrifices were necessary to avert default on the state’s debt. This position came at a high political cost on May 6, 2012, when both parties lost seats in the state’s legislative election. “The established parties collapsed — they had too much pressure from Berlin and Brussels and the I.M.F.,” said Nikos Xydakis, an newspaper editor and a political commentator, referring to Greece’s foreign lenders.[1] In other words, the leaders of the two mainstream Greek parties sold out their compatriots, having caved in to ultimatums from Merkel operating at the E.U. level. “In a meeting with President Karolos Papoulias, the leader of the leftist party, Alexis Tsipras, ridiculed the leaders of the two main parties whose coalition lost its majority in the parliamentary elections.”[2] Tsipras added that his party would not be forming a government with either party. The New Democracy Party had been unable to form a government in the wake of the election, so it was then Tsipras’ turn to try.

  

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Rachel Donadio and Niki Kitsantonis, “Greek Leftists Rule Out Coalition with Incumbents,” The New York Times, May 8, 2012.
2. Ibid.

Merkel’s Fiscal Box in the E.U. Debt Crisis

Germany was ruling out any substantive shift in its approach to Europe's debt crisis despite a rising chorus of opposition to Berlin's austerity policies that reached a crescendo in the elections in Greece and France on May 6, 2012. On the following day, Merkel “rejected the notion that Europe was on the brink of a major policy shift after Socialist Francois Hollande defeated her fellow conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek voters punished ruling parties who slashed spending to secure a foreign bailout. . . . Merkel herself made clear that, while there was scope to discuss tactics, the overall strategy EU leaders committed to by agreeing a compact on fiscal consolidation was ‘not negotiable.’”[1] That seems a bit presumptuous, considering that the “fiscal pact” had yet to be ratified in enough of the states to go into effect.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Noah Barkin and Stephen Brown, “Germany Austerity Policies: Berlin Unmoved by Votes in France, Germany,” The Huffington Post, May 7, 2012.

Fuld’s Arrogance at Lehman: Systemic Risk

Documents released in May 2012 regarding Dick Fuld at Lehman Brothers prove that he was aware of the high risk involved in holding so much real estate (and related security derivatives). This means definitively that “the ‘forces-out-of- our-control’ argument we hear from Wall Street leaders is [self-serving] bunk. It is the ill-advised behavior of one banker after another, day in and day out, that leads to the sort of devastating financial crisis we are only now emerging from.”[1]

The full essay is in Essays on the Financial Crisis, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. William Cohan, “Lehman Docs Show Wall Street Arrogance Led to Financial Collapse,” The Huffington Post, May 7, 2012.

Europeans Vote against Austerity

On May 6, 2012, elections took place in six E.U. states. The most significant in terms of the debt crisis were those of France and Greece. In France, Francois Hollande narrowly beat Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy “is the latest of a string of European incumbents, from both the left and the right, to lose in a larger popular revolt against budget-cutting and tax increased during a time of recession and high unemployment.”[1] Hollande said “he intends to give ‘a new direction to Europe,’ demanding that a European Union [amendment] limiting debt be expanded to include measures to produce economic growth.”[2] After midnight, Hollande spoke against austerity to a crowd gathered at the Bastille. To be sure, an anti-Sarkozy-arrogance vote doubtlessly benefitted Hollande. This makes it difficult to treat this (or any other) election as a mandate policywise. Even so, the center of gravity on austerity at the E.U. level had shifted, given the important role of state officials there.


The full essay is at "Europeans Vote against Austerity."

1. Steve Erlanger and Nicola Clark, “Hollande Ousts Sarkozy in French Presidential Election,” The New York Times, May 6, 2012. 
2. Ibid.
3. Rachel Donadio and Nici Kitsantonis, “Greek Voters Punish 2 Main Parties for Economic Collapse,” The New York Times, May 6, 2012. 
4. Ibid.