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Friday, October 26, 2012

Cameron to Van Rompuy: No Negotiation on E.U. Budget

Just days before the House of Commons debated whether Britain should secede from the E.U., Prime Minister David Cameron and his deputy, Nick Clegg, met with Herman Van Rompuy, President (or chair) of the European Council, to discuss Cameron’s threat to veto any proposed seven-year E.U. budget that is higher than the previous budget (allowing for inflation). The European Commission had proposed a 5% increase over the current budget, setting the stage for a clash of the titans across the federal and state levels. The British refusal even to negotiate on the federal budget exposed a major vulnerability in the E.U. itself just as it was being relied on internationally to protect the euro from succumbing to the systemic risk of Greece or Spain defaulting.

The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires.






Anti-Federalist Britain: South Carolina on Steroids

If Douglas Carswell, a member of the House of Commons, had his way, Britain would secede from the E.U. before Prince Charles could say, “hip hip!” Carswell's Private Member's Bill, submitted for debate in late October 2012, would repeal the European Communities Act (1972), by which Britain became a state in the former European Economic Community in 1973 (after France had vetoed Britain’s first request). Although Private Member’s Bills rarely become law in Britain, merely having a debate on whether to have a referendum on the question of whether the Kingdom should secede from the empire-level union would stir the pot. The Prime Minister, who was on record in support of not pulling out of the union, but for only economic reasons as his state had been benefitting from the large common market. So even if Carswell’s effort is ultimately unsuccessful, even such a revolt by Tory back-benchers could undercut David Cameron’s power in the midst of a languid economy in the state.


The complete essay is at Essays on Two Federal Empires.


                                     PM David Cameron of Britain at the European Council. Is he onboard?     AFP/Getty

Thursday, October 25, 2012

The U.S. Sues Bank of America: A Spanking or Slap-on-the-Wrist?

In late October 2012, federal prosecutors in New York formally accused Bank of America of “carrying out a scheme, started by its Countrywide Financial unit, that defrauded government-backed mortgage agencies by churning out loans at a rapid pace without proper controls. In a civil suit, prosecutors seek to collect at least $1 billion in penalties from the bank as compensation for the behavior that they say forced taxpayers to guarantee billions in bad loans.” The guarantee can be considered a moral hazard, in that Bank of America (or Countrywide) was not the party on the hook. In other words, the mortgage service company had an artificial incentive to produce mortgages riskier than would otherwise be the case because they would be guaranteed by another party (i.e., American taxpayers).

The full essay is at "U.S. Government Sues Bank of America."

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Political Risk in Systemic Risk: Finnish Pensions Err in Debt Crisis

Finland became a state in the European Union in 1995 and adopted the euro at its birth in 1999. In terms of population, the state is between Wisconsin and Minnesota, both of which are states in the United States. The Finnish culture prizes saving as well as paying-off debt on time. As the Wall Street Journal put it, the Finns are more German in this sense than are the Germans themselves. It is easy to understand, therefore, why the Finns would not have been excited about the write-offs in Greek government in 2012. The Finnish cultural attribute here is an ideological proclivity. Such a value-system so deeply held can even eclipse or interfere with an otherwise unfettered risk-return trade-off presumed to be part of the market mechanism. Just as the risk-return investment-pricing froze rather than adjusted upward with the leap in risk in CDOs and the related insurance swaps that occurred on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, the decisions of Finnish pension fund officers in the wake of the European debt crisis to pull out of Greek and Spanish bonds rather than simply to demand a higher rate of return, given the higher risk, likely means that the market mechanism itself freezes rather than functions at levels of high risk (or when risk is increasing dramatically). In other words, the theory of the laissez-faire market, which Adam Smith never advocated, has a serious flaw that is reflected in the mechanism in operation when there is a spike in risk. Un prix ne marche pas quand il y a beaucoup du risque. The free market mechanism in the investment market tends to freeze up rather than re-price instruments whose risk is quickly increasing to a significant degree.


The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon. 

Monday, October 22, 2012

Predicting Future Events in Political Risk Analysis: On the European Debt Crisis


Political risk assessment is a nasty business in that the future has a stubborn habit of not wanting to be too predictable. Even though tomorrow displays a remarkable tendency to be similar to the world of today—the status quo enjoying the right of default—forecasting future events is notoriously difficult. To use statistics to nail down probabilities may actually involve considerable luck. Not even the stature of the person making the predictions may be decisive, after all. I have in mind the predictions of Alexei Kudrin, the former Russian finance minister, on the European debt crisis and the euro.


                                                             
The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available  in print and as an ebook at Amazon.