When the E.U. state of Britain held a vote in 2016 on
whether to secede from the union, the British currency plummeted. On the day of
the December 2019 statewide election in the U.K., that currency initially
jumped and held on the day after as official results confirmed that the
conservatives had won a majority and thus would be able to see the secession
through. I submit that uncertainty itself was a major factor in both swings,
and that the market put too much emphasis on the matter of uncertainty at the expense
of the substantive economic effects of secession.
The full essay is at "The British Pound and Secession."
