Anticipation in August, 2019, at least among bond purchasers
on Wall Street, of an impending recession in 2020 had at least in part to do
with the E.U. In particular, a large state, Germany, had a disappointing second
quarter in terms of contracting economic
output, and the increasing prospect of Britain seceding from the Union was
thought to result in the E.U. economy turning recessionary. I contend that both
of these baleful indicators were over-emphasized. Additionally, adding the
increasing political polarization in the E.U. as another contributor to an
upcoming recession would be too much.
The full essay is at "Anticipating a Recession."
