The “Arab
Spring” of 2011 might have given the world an over-optimistic notion of what
political protest can engender in terms of “regime change.” A year later, the
Egyptian military was still in control, which suggests that removing one
particular dictator had constituted real change. In Myanmar, soldiers still
dominated the parliament even after the opposition party won a landslide
victory in by-elections in March 2012. Meanwhile, Assad in Syria was getting
away with teaching the protesters in his country a bloody lesson while both the
Arab League and the UN looked on. Meanwhile, Putin viewed his fraudulent presidential
election victory as a mandate to deal more severely with the Russian
protesters. The notion that a brave new world of democracy had somehow sprung
to life in the Arab Spring suffered an cold snap of sorts from the cold winds
of real politik. I suspect that real change happens more incrementally, and
from the bottom up. This was evident in Russia in March, 2012.
The full essay is at "A Democratic Spring."
