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Monday, December 5, 2016

Analysis of Italy’s 2016 Referendum: Beyond the Euro and the E.U.

The predominate axis of analysis in the wake of the Italian referendum in early December, 2016 centered on the euro, the federal currency of the European Union. For example, an article in The Wall Street Journal begins with the following: “Sunday’s referendum vote in Italy reinforced a widening split between the economics needed to sustain Europe’s common currency and the continent’s rising tide of populism.”[1] At the time, however, the populism in the E.U.’s states had more to do with immigration than the federal currency. Even so, analysts predicted that Italian parties antagonistic to the currency could be expected to benefit. Stephen Gallo at BMO Financial Group went so far as to claim, “Eurozone breakup risks are rising,” given “the political currents at work in the Eurozone.”[2] Although he makes a good observation in noting the lack of a political will in the States “to finish building the missing architecture of the single currency area”—implying that the underpinnings of the euro were inherently unstable—he overlooked the matter of the distribution of wealth, and in particular the element of fairness, which I submit is salient in the Italians’ ‘No’ vote as well as in the rising anti-establishment, or shall we say, anti-elite, populism of the day.
The full essay is at "Italy's Referendum."

1. Stephen Fidler, “Italy’s ‘No’ Opens Harrowing Year for EU,” The Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2016.
2. Jon Sindreu, “Euro Falls as Italian Reject Renzi’s Changes,” The Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2016.